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☆ Don't the first Fed rate cut until December, says SMBC Nikko Securities' Joe LaVorgna
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't the first Fed rate cut until December, says SMBC Nikko Securities' Joe LaVorgnaJoe LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America U.S. chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of Middle East tensions, the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate outlook, and more.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna Joe LaVorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities, Nikko Securities America U.S Locations: Nikko

☆ Fed meeting: Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed meeting: Here's what to expectSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, Paul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global market strategy, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss a timeline for Fed rate easing, U.S. economic health, and more.

Persons: Subadra, Paul Christopher, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Societe Generale, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Uncertain 2024 makes US companies refinance debt sooner, not later
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Doubts that debt issuance conditions will be as strong in 2024 as they are now, with markets still divided on the direction of interest rates and the economy, have also driven the interest in doing deals now. Credit spreads are underpricing recession risk, said Nate Thooft, senior portfolio manager for Manulife Investment Management. Even if companies waited for rate cuts in 2024, declines in all-in funding costs may not necessarily follow, as credit spreads could then widen, said Amol Dhargalkar, managing partner at Chatham Financial. But Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade credit strategy at Payden & Rygel, said economic data was too strong for cuts. Some $770 billion of investment-grade rated bonds mature in 2024 and over $900 billion in both 2025 and 2026, according to data by Morgan Stanley (MS.N).

Persons: Joshua Roberts, Maureen O'Connor, Edward Marrinan, Nate Thooft, Amol Dhargalkar, Natalie Trevithick, Morgan Stanley, Steven Oh, Matt Tracy, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Davide Barbuscia, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, ICE, BMO Capital Markets, Investment, Informa Global, Treasury, Federal, Nikko Securities America, Manulife Investment Management, Chatham Financial, Deutsche Bank, PineBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Wells, U.S

☆ Here's what it would take for the Fed to start slashing interest rates in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"In a different cycle, when inflation hadn't spiked so much, I think the Fed would have been cutting rates already. "If the real fed funds rate continues to go higher as I expect it will, then you'd want to offset that through rate cuts. And the amount of rate cuts I think they're going to have to do is a relatively large amount." "I think there's a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon," the head of Pershing Square Capital Management added. However, even some of the historically more dovish Fed officials aren't showing their hands on when they think cuts will come.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Waller, Bowman, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Chris Marangi, Bill Ackman, Ackman, David Rubenstein, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Fed, Nikko Securities America, National Economic Council, CME Group, Stocks, Gabelli, Market, Pershing, Capital Management, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Locations: Washington , DC, Atlanta

☆ Exclusive: Bayer holds call with bond investors after raft of bad news
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Shankar Ramakrishnan | Thomson Reuters | Shankar Ramakrishnan Has Nearly Years Of Financial Journalism Experience In Writing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bad news prompted some bond investors to question whether Bayer should sweeten the terms of the deal or outright pull it, one of the sources said. The drug-to-pesticides group priced the investment grade bond on Thursday last week, with the deal closing on Tuesday. Bayer priced bonds with maturities between three to 30 years. It was the 10th largest investment grade bond deal by an industrial company this year and attracted more than $22 billion in orders, according to Informa Global Markets. The events were "not enough to trigger a material adverse change clause in bond documents for investors to ask to be paid back," said CreditSights' Brady.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Bayer, Andrew Brady, CreditSights, JP Morgan, Wells, Brady, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Ludwig Burger, Mike Erman, Paritosh Bansal, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Bayer AG, REUTERS, Bayer, Nomura Holdings, Informa Global Markets, Citigroup, Nikko Securities America, RIC, Thomson Locations: Leverkusen, Germany, Seattle

But they are going only as far as the safest bets in the junk category, bonds rated BB and B. Junk bond spreads, the additional interest rate investors demand over safe Treasury bonds, tightened sharply. The spreads of those rated BB and B, or the higher rungs of junk, had tightened 47-52 basis points last week, according to Informa Global Markets data. Four junk bond issuers – Bombardier (BBDb.TO), Venture Global LNG, Smyrna Ready Mix Concrete and InfraBuild Australia - announced bond offerings on Monday. The spotty access to bond markets does not bode well for poorly rated companies.

Persons: Rick Wilking, ”, Edward Marrinan, Peter Knapp, Winnie Cisar, bode, Morgan Stanley, Moody's, Manuel Hayes, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Paritosh Bansal, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Nikko Securities Americas, Investors, JPMorgan, Informa, CCC, Bombardier, Venture Global LNG, “, London, Insight Investment, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Smyrna, Australia

☆ Markets are on board with the Fed's ‘higher for longer’ policy, CNBC survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As recently as the summer, respondents had forecast rate cuts in the beginning of next year. The change can also be seen in the outlook for the fed funds rate, the central bank's benchmark for short-term lending costs. It's now forecast on average to end 2024 at 4.6%, assuming about 75 basis points of rate cuts. In June, the year-end 2024 funds rate was forecast at 3.8%, which assumed 125 basis points of cuts. Some 60% of respondents see the Fed hitting its inflation target in 2025 or sometime after that, and 19% don't believe the Fed will ever get there.

Persons: Jerome, Powell, Peter Boockvar, Robert Brusca, Troy Ludtka Organizations: CNBC, Survey, Federal Reserve, Bleakley Financial, Fed, Nikko Securities

☆ The economy probably showed gangbuster growth in the third quarter. But will it last?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

If the projection is correct, it will be the strongest output since the fourth quarter of 2021, when growth was just shy of 7%. However, policymakers, economists and markets will be focused more on forward-looking signals from an economy that repeatedly has defied expectations. For Q3, GDPNow is projecting growth of 5.4%, with more than half — 2.77 percentage points — to come from consumer spending. That expectation intensified during a brief banking industry crisis in March 2023 that the Fed expected would constrain credit enough to bring about a downturn. Central bank officials have raised rates aggressively while professing to not want to drag the economy into recession.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow, Joseph LaVorgna, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Ricchiuto, —, Quincy Krosby, that's Organizations: Getty, Gross, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities America, Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Mizuho Securities USA, Department, Treasury, LPL Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S

☆ The U.S. economy is extremely resilient, says economist Betsey Stevenson
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. economy is extremely resilient, says economist Betsey StevensonJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, and Betsey Stevenson, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss where the Federal Reserve goes from here, their thoughts on the overall economy, and more.

Persons: Betsey Stevenson Joseph LaVorgna, Betsey Stevenson Organizations: Nikko Securities America, University of Michigan, Federal

The forecasts seem at odds as higher rates raise the credit costs that can crimp the economy. MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of global equity performance and stocks on Wall Street bounced back while Treasury yields, which move inversely to price, retreated. Yields on two- and 10-year notes remained inverted at -68.3 basis points as the shorter-dated note yields more than the longer one. MSCI's all-world country index for stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.14%, but the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.31%. Oil prices rose as renewed global supply concerns from Russia's fuel export ban countered demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds and higher interest rates.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Marvin Loh, Joe LaVorgna, SMBC, Brent, Craig Ebert, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Marguerita Choy, Rashmi Aich, Aurora Ellis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank, Japan, Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Investors, Bank of England, Swiss, Swiss National Bank, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York, Asia, Japan, China, Sweden, Norway, BNZ, Wellington

☆ This is a ‘distorted environment’ for investors, warns fmr. White House economist Joe LaVorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is a ‘distorted environment’ for investors, warns fmr. White House economist Joe LaVorgnaJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Fast Money' to talk current market risks, the probability of a recession and more.

Persons: fmr, Joe LaVorgna Joseph LaVorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities America

☆ Powell's pivotal speech Friday could see a marked shift from what he's done in the past
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"I just think he's going to play it about as down the middle as possible," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. "He's got to strike that chord that the Fed is going to finish the job. "He's going to want to be a little more hawkish than neutral. But he's not going to deliver what he delivered last year. A Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August's figures will show a noticeable jump.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Win Mcnamee, Joseph LaVorgna, circumspect, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, He's, It's, Quincy Krosby, he's, Inflation's, Krosby, Patrick Harker, you've, Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson Organizations: Financial, Federal, Getty, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Research, National Economic Council, LPL, Cleveland, San Francisco Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Washington , DC, circumspect Powell

☆ All of the economic momentum is pointing to the downside, says top economist Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAll of the economic momentum is pointing to the downside, says top economist Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, recession fears, the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting, and more.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna, Jackson Organizations: Nikko Securities America Locations: U.S

Edward Marrinan, macro credit strategy desk analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities America, added: "Credit risk at this point is mispriced." The move prompted a sell-off in equities and slight widening in corporate credit spreads. The average investment-grade bond spreads as of on Thursday were just a few basis points wider than the tightest levels touched this year in July and 16 basis points tighter from January. Junk-bond spreads are 98 basis points inside January levels. "With market consensus now expecting a soft landing, the credit markets are arguably underpricing default risk," BMO’s Krieter said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Cindy Beaulieu, Edward Marrinan, Moody's, Daniel Krieter, Krieter, Marrinan, Manuel Hayes, Hayes, BMO’s Krieter, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Davide Barbuscia, Paritosh Bansal, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: NYSE, American Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, London, Insight Investment, Informa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ What does Moody’s downgrade mean for markets?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Moody’s on Monday evening downgraded 10 US banks and put the credit ratings of six others on review, an indication that the agency could also eventually downgrade those institutions. Some investors say that while the Moody’s downgrade isn’t groundbreaking, it’s a reminder that the economy, and markets, still have challenges ahead. Moody’s downgraded Commerce Bank, BOK Financial, M&T Bank, Old National Bank, Prosperity Bank, Amarillo National Bank, Webster Financial, Fulton Financial, Pinnacle Financial and Associated Bank. Wall Street firms fined $549 million for using WhatsApp and other channelsWells Fargo is among a number of Wall Street firms that admitted Tuesday to using WhatsApp, Signal and other messaging platforms for “off-channel” communications in violation of federal recordkeeping requirements. The Securities and Exchange Commission said the Wall Street firms acknowledged wrongdoing and have agreed to pay penalties totaling $289 million, reports my colleague Matt Egan.

Persons: CNN — Moody’s, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Goldman Sachs, BNY, Cullen, Frost, ” Moody’s, ”, Kara Murphy, Fitch, Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott, Price, Matt Egan, Houlihan Lokey, Alicia Wallace Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Bank, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Banking, BNY Mellon, Northern Trust, Frost Bankers, Truist Financial, US Bank, Moody’s, Commerce Bank, BOK, T Bank, National Bank, Prosperity Bank, Amarillo National Bank, Webster Financial, Fulton Financial, Pinnacle Financial, Associated Bank, PNC Financial Services, Financial, Citizens Financial, Fifth Third Bank, Huntington Bank, Regions Financial, Cadence Bank, FNB Corp, Simmons, Ally Financial, Bank OZK, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Federal Reserve, Kestra Investment Management, Consumer, Wall Street, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, BNP, SG Americas, BMO Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities, SMBC Nikko Securities, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Wells Fargo, Amarillo, Marinac, Wells, SMBC Nikko Securities America, WhatsApp, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York

☆ Regulators fine Wall Street firms $549 million for using WhatsApp and other channels to discuss business
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —Wells Fargo and a slew of other Wall Street firms admitted Tuesday to using WhatsApp, Signal and other messaging platforms for “off-channel” communications in violation of federal recordkeeping requirements. The Securities and Exchange Commission said the Wall Street firms acknowledged wrongdoing and have agreed to pay penalties totaling $289 million. The SEC said the firms violated federal securities laws by failing to maintain or preserve the “substantial majority” of these communications. Another regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, also fined four of the same Wall Street firms for failing to maintain records and failing to supervise matters related to their businesses. The CFTC hit Bank of Montreal with a $35 million fine and a $75 million fine each for BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Wells Fargo.

Persons: Wells, Houlihan Lokey, ” Sanjay Wadhwa Organizations: New, New York CNN, Securities, Exchange Commission, Wall Street, SEC, BNP, SG Americas, BMO Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities, SMBC Nikko Securities, Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, Bank of Montreal, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, SMBC Nikko Securities America, WhatsApp

☆ A group of Wall Street banks have been fined $549 million for using WhatsApp and other messaging apps to discuss business
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The SEC and CFTC have fined a group of Wall Street firms a combined $549 million. The firms admitted to employees using WhatsApp and other messaging services for business purposes. A pair of regulatory agencies on Tuesday announced large fines for a group of Wall Street banks that admitted to using WhatsApp and other messaging services for business purposes. The Securities and Exchange Commission is fining nine firms a total of $289 million, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued $260 million in fines, for a combined sum of $549 million. The Wednesday announcements bring the SEC's total fines related to the matter to $1.5 billion, while the CFTC's statement said it's imposed more than $1 billion in penalties to date.

Persons: Grewal, SEC Wells, Houlihan Lokey Organizations: SEC, CFTC, Wall Street, BNP, BMO Capital Markets, Morning, Securities, Exchange, Futures Trading, Americas Securities, Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities USA, Company, Wedbush Securities, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo, Wall

That would be a lag of eight months, significantly longer than the average gap between last hike and first cut going back decades. "In the past markets have tended to underestimate how high rates are raised and underestimate how low rates are cut. Inflation targeting, more sophisticated financial markets, transparent central bank communications, and greater central bank autonomy since the 1990s have all contributed as well. Brazil's central bank, one of the first to raise rates in early 2021, has started cutting them after a 12-month pause. Current market pricing suggests that will not come until 2025, which would be an even longer lag.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Joe Lavorgna, BoE, Milton Friedman's, Jamie McGeever, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Bank of, Reuters, The Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: New, New York City, U.S, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO , Florida, Brazil's

☆ Rally setback: Top economist Joe LaVorgna sees key inflection point ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRally setback: Top economist Joe LaVorgna sees key inflection point aheadJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America Chief Economist, joins 'Fast Money' to help make sense of market moves with the economy, Fed, GDP and markets. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the FM Traders.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna, Joseph LaVorgna, Melissa Lee Organizations: Nikko Securities America, FM Traders

☆ Recession worries are likely to carry over into the second half of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

LaVorgna is in the camp that says it will be difficult if not impossible for the U.S. to avoid at least a modest period of negative growth in the second half. "The only way we won't have a deep recession is if the Fed has the courage to ease very quickly." "The second half will be difficult. And if history is any guide, the strength that has marked the first half of the year likely will carry over into the second half. In years when the index gained more than 10% in the first half, the second half usually sees double the normal second-half return, according to CFRA.

Persons: Joseph LaVorgna, Trump, LaVorgna, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, hasn't, CFRA, Sam Stovall, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities America, Fed, Market Committee, Atlanta, Moody's, University of Michigan, Treasury, Pantheon Locations: U.S, nonfarm payrolls, Friday's

☆ The Fed might cut rates this year if the U.S. gets weak employment data, says SMBC's Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed might cut rates this year if the U.S. gets weak employment data, says SMBC's Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America, joins 'Fast Money' to discuss the possibility of a recession, recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and what would need to happen in order for the Fed to cut rates.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nikko Securities America, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Here's what to watch out for in Friday's jobs report for May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesWatching the monthly jobs reports this year has been something of a waiting exercise, with economists and market participants looking for a downturn that never seems to arrive. But judging by the way these reports have been going, the risk is probably to the upside in a jobs market that has been nothing if not resilient. "The labor market still looks tight. Defying the FedThe tight labor market and the pressure that has put on wages and inflation has bedeviled the Federal Reserve. A 'fully staffed' jobs market?

Persons: Joe Raedle, Dow Jones, We're, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, payrolls, we're, Donald Trump, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Labor Department, Nikko Securities America, National Economic Council, Federal Reserve Locations: Miami , Florida

☆ The Fed is making a classic policy mistake, says top economist Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is making a classic policy mistake, says top economist Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, former NEC chief economist and SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, whether a hike or pause in rates is more likely this month, and more.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna Organizations: NEC, Nikko Securities America

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with SMBC Nikko Securities America's Joe Lavorgna
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with SMBC Nikko Securities America's Joe LavorgnaJoe Lavorgna, former NEC chief economist and SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, whether a hike or pause in rates is more likely this month, and more.

Persons: Joe Lavorgna Joe Lavorgna Organizations: SMBC Nikko Securities, NEC, Nikko Securities America

☆ Fed needs to see people coming into the labor force, says economist Betsey Stevenson
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed needs to see people coming into the labor force, says economist Betsey StevensonJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, and Betsey Stevenson, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, join CNBC's "Squawk Box" discuss Friday’s jobs report.

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